US presidential polls 2016 latest update: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 4 points - Reuters/IPSOS poll
The latest results in the Reuters/IPSOS poll show Hillary Clinton leading against Trump by 4.7 points at 37.7 to 34 percent.
On Sept. 9, both candidates were almost tied, with Trump leading only by a small fraction at 36 to 35.9 percent. A poll conducted by the LA Times shows that Trump is leading by 4 points at 46.7 to 42 percent.
The election forecast by FiveThirtyEight shows that Clinton has a 64.2 percent chance of winning the elections as opposed to Trump with 35.8 percent. The forecast predicts that Clinton will get 297.1 electoral votes and 46.4 percent of the popular vote. It predicted that Trump will get 240.4 electoral votes and 43.6 percent of the popular vote.
Most of the other forecasts predict that Clinton would win the presidency. The Upshot forecast shows that Clinton has a 78 percent chance of winning while Trump only has 22 percent. Clinton got 77 percent from the forecast by DailyKos. She got 71 percent from PredictWise while Princeton predicted that she has a 89 percent chance of winning the elections.
Upshot contends that Florida is crucial for Trump. "The big demographic threat to the Republican Party isn't a 'blue' Texas or Arizona or Georgia, but the possibility that Florida will follow Nevada and New Mexico to the left. It's extremely hard for a Republican to win the presidency without Florida's 29 electoral votes," reported the New York Times.
According to an NBC poll, Trump and Clinton are tied in four battleground states. Trump leads by one point at 42 to 41 percent in Arizona. In Georgia, Trump leads by three points at 46 to 43. In Nevada, Clinton leads by 1 point at 45 to 44. In New Hampshire, Clinton leads at 42 to 41 percent.
The first presidential debate will be held on Monday, Sept. 26 at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. It will be moderated by Lester Holt from NBC Nightly News.
